Champions League permutations: What do we need to progress?

As we head into the final two games of our League Phase campaign in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, here is a look at what results we will require to progress in the competition.

We head into the two upcoming matches against Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt in a pretty good place.

We currently sit 11th out of the 36 sides in the League Phase with 11 points. That tally sees us sitting comfortably in the 'Play-Off round spots', five points clear of the bottom 12 elimination places while we are sitting just one point outside of the top eight - the eight teams which progress straight to the round of 16.

To progress directly to the round of 16

To get a place in the top eight and avoid taking part in February's Play-Off round, it is perhaps still too early to tell exactly what we will need in terms of points with just three points currently separating the 13 teams currently sat 3rd to 15th in the table. The picture for who will progress via the top eight spots will become much clearer after matchweek seven has been completed.

Last season, the eight teams which progressed directly to the round of 16 all, ironically, picked up a minimum of 16 points in the League Phase. If we assume the same number of points will be required this season, it means we will likely need to win both of our final two remaining games to finish in the top eight.

To book a place in the Play-Off round

To guarantee a spot in the February's Play-Off round - a seeded two-legged tie to progress to the round of 16 - we will need, at most, two points from our remaining games.

Currently five points clear of the 12 elimination places, two more points would make a place in the Play-Off round a certainty, while just one point would likely be just enough given our healthy goal difference of +6.

Even if we were to lose both of our remaining games, for any of the eight teams currently sat 22nd to 29th in the league, they would need to take maximum points from their final two games to overtake us and eliminate us from the competition.

If their results go in our favour across this matchweek, we could be assured of a place in the knockout stages this week.