BVB preview with German football expert Raphael Honigstein

German football expert, writer, pundit and BT Sport regular Raphael Honigstein takes a look at Borussia Dortmund ahead of tonight's Champions League Round of 16, first leg at Wembley in our latest 'Preview from the Press Box'.

Form

Raphael: “Injuries at the back have come back to bite them a little in recent weeks. Julian Weigl, who is normally a midfielder, has been filling in at centre-back because they’ve had many injuries - Manuel Akanji hasn’t played this year, Dan-Axel Zagadou isn’t quite right so they’ve been forced to make changes and they’ve suffered a little for it. There was also an element of sloppiness involved against Hoffenheim (led 3-0 after 75 minutes, drew 3-3 on Saturday), they thought the game was won and they were much closer to scoring a fourth goal than Hoffenheim were to scoring but they were then caught cold. It was a similar story against Werder Bremen in the DFB Cup, where they conceded too many silly goals (drew 3-3, lost on penalties) and got knocked out. However, in both of those games, the results actually mask the superiority of Dortmund for much of the games. They were in control, could have scored more goals and it’s only because their finishing wasn’t clinical that they allowed those teams back in and paid the price. They have only lost once in the Bundesliga, they beat Bayern Munich, beat Atletico Madrid 4-0 in the Champions League – the heaviest defeat of the Diego Simeone era – and apart from losing against Atletico at the Wanda Metropolitano (in the return game in the UCL) their only defeat is at Fortuna Dusseldorf. Okay, you could count the DFB Cup defeat on penalties, but in terms of 90 minutes they’ve only lost two games all season - that shows just how consistent they have been.”

Tactics

Raphael: “They have basically been playing 4-2-3-1 with slight variations up front. That’s the set-up under Lucien Favre with two central midfielders who control the spaces between what is a very young attacking formation and the back four. The difference to last season, where they were a little fragile - and beaten easily by Spurs at Wembley - is they do have that balance. Okay, it sounds a little strange saying that after the last two games where they’ve conceded three goals in each, but by and large they’ve had a wonderful balance and a bit of steel they’ve been missing courtesy of Axel Witsel and Thomas Delaney. They have made a big difference to the team both tactically and in terms of personality and the presence they have on the pitch.”

Key players

Raphael: “I would have picked out Marco Reus but I guess the good news for Spurs is that it looks like he’s not playing, and that’s a big blow for Dortmund. He’s been absolutely superb for them, but he got injured in the DFB Cup game at Werder Bremen. He is their most important player but Axel Witsel, who I think will be captain in Reus’ absence, has been a phenomenal success since coming in. He is the guy that others look for when it comes to taking control of the game, leadership, the strategic approach. He always does the right thing and pops up in the right spaces. As far as controlling the game and protecting the back four is concerned, he is probably the most important player for Dortmund at Wembley.”

Prediction

Raphael: “Now that Reus is out, I’m a little less bullish. I thought Dortmund would do it over the two legs. They might still, but on the night, that’s a disadvantage. I think a draw is a likely outcome.”